Euro Credit Supply: Corporate supply is very active this summer while financials slow down

Corporate supply above average in July  

Supply in July was above average at €20bn, as the busy June continued into July, particularly in the first week. Corporate supply for 2025 is now at €274bn YTD, still well on course to trump previous years, and reach our forecast of at least €400bn.

Reverse Yankee supply remains a driving force

Another €5bn in corporate reverse Yankee supply in July, puts the YTD figure pencilled in at €55bn. The large influx of reverse Yankee supply certainly contributes towards the large corporate supply being observed. The still attractive cost saving advantage on offer for US issuers will keep these issues at high levels. We expect to exceed our original forecast of €65bn by the year end.

Financial supply hit by summer slowdown

The start of the summer coincided with a significant slowdown on bank bonds’ primary market. Indeed, only €8.5bn was printed in the senior unsecured segment in July. The bulk of this number stems from the senior bail-in segment with €6.5bn supplied last month versus only €2bn in the senior preferred one. Overall, this brings the YTD senior unsecured supply to €142bn. This is split with slightly over €51bn in senior preferred instruments and €90bn in senior bail-in bonds.