CIS macro and credit: The path to normality
We continue to monitor macro and credit developments in our CIS-4 coverage space. We look at how Russia’s neighbours are returning to business as usual following the double shock of the global pandemic and geopolitics of 2020-22. The common denominator would be a return to average growth rates, disinflation and addressing the imbalances on the FX market
Executive summary
Armenia’s economic performance remains robust and continues to beat expectations. 2023 GDP growth was 8.7% and the monthly indicators are pointing at a strong start to 2024. Fiscal performance also seems under control, while CPI is in the negative since mid-2023, creating room for monetary easing.
Azerbaijan has lagged its CIS peers in terms of economic performance, largely due to volatility in commodity extraction, but 2024 should bring some normalisation.
Kazakhstan had a successful 2023, showing solid GDP growth, better-than-expected fiscal performance, slowdown in the CPI, easing in the monetary policy, and a stronger-than-expected currency.
Uzbekistan macro dynamics have been largely in line with our initial expectations. Economic activity is showing stable growth, supported by relations with neighbours and apparently financed by the state.
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