Stranger than fiction
Markets have rebounded following yesterday's missile scare, but the post-incident analysis is hard to fathom
| 0 |
US casualties from the Iran missile attacksGood, but curious |
Where is Raymond Reddington?
If this were not a daily market opinion piece, but a NetFlix drama, I don't think I could have written more twists into the storyline: First, a pariah nation has its top general assassinated and retaliates with a missile attack on the enemy's bases. But what's this? No casualties. And it now seems as if the missiles were targeted to minimise casualties. Could they have been forewarned? Some Iraqi sources are saying yes, they were.
Had Qaseem Soleimani gone rogue? Was this a win for Iran as well as the US? And has all the browbeating and public wailing and gnashing of teeth just been for public consumption in Tehran?
It goes without saying that the market reactions I had flagged yesterday in the event of a more forceful US reaction no longer apply. I shall be very cautious before making any interpretation of future events, as the world I thought I lived in, now more closely resembles one of the better episodes of the fictional drama Blacklist.
And when viewed in the context of CEOs of massive conglomerates escaping justice in private jets and in disguised musical instrument boxes, you are left wondering, what next? Can the forthcoming James Bond movie, due for release in April offer more intrigue?
And at what point will Jack Reacher start to negotiate a phase-2 trade deal with China?
China's industrial profits growth and Producer Price inflation
Quiet day in Asia
There isn't much on the calendar today in either Asia or the G-7. Chinese PPI for December might be worth a look when it is out, given its correlation with industrial profits. It is expected to moderate its decline from 1.4%YoY in November.
And yesterday's US December ADP result of 202,000 private job creation suggests a decent payroll reading on Friday which could provide further market support. But we won't get anything else today with any US labour market implications.
Download
Download opinion"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).