Rude awakening
Back from two weeks of holiday - what's changed? Turkish Lira, EURUSD. Lower US Treasury yields
Coming back from vacation is a bit like opening Christmas presents...not all desirable
Coming back from a two-week vacation, much of which was spent in wi-fi purdah, is a bit like opening Christmas presents - what am I going to find in bond market space? Oh, like the obligatory pair of socks - nothing too interesting here. 10Y Yields still below 3%, despite all the US inflation measures being over-target and the Fed still in tightening mode. 2Y US Treasury yields have dipped sharply (an unexpected but welcome jar of marmalade?).
But then open the FX wrapping paper, and whilst most of Asian FX seems to have stuck at levels reached some weeks ago (more socks?), the Turkish Lira continues to be under serious pressure, and some of this is now spilling into the EUR, due to the region's close trade linkages with Turkey (a tasteless sweater perhaps?). So much so, that this is even beginning to see EUR/GBP moving sharply in favour of the pound, despite Brexit seeming to have moved no further in a positive direction (some things never change).
OK - that's enough of this analogy, which was getting a bit stretched anyway (like the tasteless sweater - three sizes too small). But on the EUR/USD, relatively range-bound since June, one question is, should we really be treating US protectionism as a USD negative? Many big finance houses are doing so. But there are good reasons to think we should not.
Sure, past history has typically been unkind to the dollar during periods when it was being protectionist. But then how many occasions has this been? Is this really a statistically significant set of observations? Were economic conditions similar on those few occasions? The answers to these questions are, respectively, "Not many, no, and not really." At best, we should probably have approached this protectionism neutrally.
From a theoretical perspective, whenever the US administration slaps tariffs on other countries, it is improving its terms of trade (export prices relative to import prices) at the expense of other countries. If nothing else were changing, this ought to provide the USD with a boost. If it didn't, then protectionism would allow aggressor countries to have their cake and eat it too - they could improve their terms of trade with tariffs, and their currency would also move in a helpful direction.
In this respect, Turkey's currency is behaving as you might expect given that its terms of trade have been hurt by US tariffs, it is weakening to offset that damage. As we await a convincing response from the Central Bank and government, this will likely continue to be the case, and so too will the spillovers we see today for example, in EUR/GBP. For now, this is not an Asian issue except in as much as the pressure for the USD to respond to its protectionism with some further appreciation remains. Ironically, this is probably exactly the opposite response President Trump would like to see, though he is being helped for the moment by the decline in yields in US bond markets. If this changes, then this ought to provide the USD with a further boost. Then, this might become an Asian problem.
Asia day ahead
We've already had a slightly disappointing start to the day with Singapore 2Q18 GDP revisions coming in a little lower than the 4.1% consensus view (3.9% actual versus 3.8 preliminary). But the 1Q18 figures were revised higher to 4.5% (4.3% previously) mitigating some of the disappointment. And at this stage, we don't expect to have to respond to this data with any change to our 3.0% full-year GDP forecast. More important will be Friday's non-oil domestic export figures, which will set the scene for the second-half of the year.
Other than that, it is a quiet day - we may get some Chinese money supply figures, though these may not be out until Wednesday - we expect these to be strong, whenever these are released. Other than that, we are in wait-and-see mode ahead of China's activity data releases for July, released tomorrow.
Download
Download opinion
13 August 2018
Good MornING Asia - 13 August 2018 This bundle contains 3 Articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).