Lowflation strikes again

10Y US bond yields are back below 2.50% as of writing this, despite strong GDP figures last week. This is not a bad backdrop for EM Asia. 

Opinions
29 April 2019 
arrows
arrows

Asian FX a little weaker, but outlook calm

Thanks to recent USD strength, most Asian currencies are a little weaker than they were a few weeks ago. But despite an apparent re-run of some EM currency distress outside Asia, it does not look as if we will see a re-run of the contagion that led to widespread Asian FX weakness in 2018. And for the current account deficit currencies of the region, IDR, INR and PHP, the talk is still of the potential for easing, not the likelihood of protective tightening. For example, the Philippine Central Bank (BSP) Governor, Diokno, was reported as talking about" when", not "if" for policy easing recently.

One of the factors that has changed the outlook for Asian FX, is what is happening to US inflation and consequently the outlook for Fed policy. While last year, until Powell's December capitulation, the talk was about how much more tightening was coming, the mood-music on Fed rates has entirely changed to consideration of likely cuts. Real rates in the region are also high, relative to last year, so international investors are well compensated for taking on local currency risk.

Flying in the face of calls for Fed easing, last week's 1Q19 US GDP of 3.2% was way above expectations, though it was largely driven by transitory factors that our US Economists see likely to be unwound in coming quarters.

What may also have weighed on bond markets was the inflation data accompanying the GDP numbers. The Core Personal Consumption expenditure deflator (Core PCE inflation), slipped back to 1.3% from 1.8%. That's way off the Fed's 2% target. But our US team don't expect the Fed to cut whilst growth and the labour market are apparently so strong. Markets seem confused over which way to turn.

10Y US Treasury yield breakdown

Inflation expectations aren't collapsing

I was slightly surprised to see US inflation expectations holding up as well as they seem to be in the face of last weeks core PCE figures. Checking this morning against a newswire story that seemed to suggest the opposite, the 5Y-5Y forward breakeven rate (a widely watched measure of market inflation expectations) was firm at 2.09%. The same story was true of the 10Y nominal versus inflation-linked bonds, though the level was a little lower at 1.97%. All of which tells us that if markets have not totally bought into recent economic strength, they don't seem to believe the disinflation story either. In fact, most of the decline in bond yields seems to be through the real rate, as even the term premium is fairly steady, though at rock-bottom levels.

In short, bond yields seem to be torn between downbeat views on US growth and strong growth data, and between low inflation data, and firm inflation expectations. A distinct absence of market volatility adds further blandness of this mix. While these factors remain in place, it is hard to justify directional calls.

Asia week ahead

It is a quiet start to the week, but it hots up as the week progresses. For the full blow-by-blow view, see our latest week ahead note. But among the highlights are South Korean export data for April, that will add to our understanding of the global technology slump, along with Singapore reports on this industry.

Korean inflation could also spur thoughts of a BoK easing, and New Zealand labour market data could also spur RBNZ easing thoughts, weighing on the currencies of these two countries.

GDP data is also due from HK and Taiwan, following on from recent soft Korean and Singaporean data. PMIs across the region including form China finish off the week.


Disclaimer

"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.

This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.

The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.

Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.

ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).