This cruel summer

With GDP down in double digits in virtually all global economies, ING's Carsten Brzeski reflects that this truly is a 'cruel summer'. It's also the headline of our August Economic Update. We look too at who's most effective in the credit markets, the Fed or the ECB. And why is our man in New York so worried?

In this bundle

Carsten on 2020’s cruel summer

'A cruel summer' was a big hit back in 1984. 36 years later, it could be the soundtrack of 2020 as the impact of the Covid-19 crisis is revealed…

Report

August Economic Update: A cruel summer

We've seen historic dismal numbers this quarter, but they are painful illustrations of the costs of a lockdown. In the second half of the year, the…

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United States

US: Forget the “V”

With virus fears on the rise, jobs being lost and incomes squeezed, we feel the second phase of the recovery will be much more challenging, especially in…

Eurozone: Better, but the fear factor remains

After the historic GDP contraction in 2Q, Eurozone economic figures have improved, though the flare-up of Covid-19 infections has placed a burden on the…

China

China’s tech war with the US has made us revise our yuan forecast

The persistence of the technology war is hurting long term Chinese growth and the yuan's strength. Although we're revising our yuan forecast, it…

FX: King dollar loses its crown

The dollar’s four percent decline in July marked its largest monthly drop since 2010. Driving this decline is both a re-rating of the European…

Rates

Credit: Why the Fed’s loaded gun appears more powerful than the ECB’s fired bullet

USD credit spreads are clearly outperforming EUR credit despite the fact that the (relative) volume of purchases by the ECB through PEPP and CSPP is far…

and

United States

James Knightley: Why I am getting nervous

There’s a threefold threat to America’s economic recovery, says ING's James Knightley in New York. And that's why he's getting…