January Economic Update: Overdoing the gloom

2019 is starting on a downbeat note, as further signs of a global slowdown continue to fuel a flight-to-safety in the markets. However, while growth is unlikely to match the favourable surprises of early 2018, the gloom may be overdone. Read more in our latest economic update

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Report

January Economic Update: Overdoing the gloom

United States

US: Look on the bright side

Despite the current market doom and gloom there are plenty of positives for the US economy

Eurozone: A weak end to the year

While the dispute over Italy’s budget has been resolved, trade wars and Brexit remain substantial risks to eurozone growth, which is already…

United Kingdom

UK: Breaking the Brexit deadlock

The UK economy is beginning to stall as Prime Minister Theresa May prepares to hold a crunch vote on her deal in mid-January. This looks set to be…

China

China: In need of stability

The Chinese economy is weakening, as shown by manufacturing surveys, but fiscal stimulus should soon be in place to counter unemployment risks. The…

FX: Dollar close to its peak

Peak dollar rhetoric dominates the FX environment as we look to the final stage of the dollar rally. The effect of fiscal stimulus on US growth is fading…

Japan

Japan: Talking down the economy

Japan’s economy was severely hit by the weather, with a partial recovery now being seen. However, inflation continues to undershoot expectations,…

Rates

Rates: Pivot and turn

The recent downturn in bond yields, prompted by political worries, may continue in the near term. However, we expect US yields to shift back towards the…