Bundles

8 May 2025

ING Monthly: The world is caught like a deer in the headlights

Markets have calmed, but don’t be mistaken; we are far from being back to normal. There's a sense that the world is caught like a deer in the headlights, not sure what to do and terrified of what might be about to hit it

In this bundle

Trade

The world is caught like a deer in the headlights

Carsten Brzeski on the world right now

Trade

Global trade forecast drops; Section 232 tariffs set to intensify

This year's trade growth forecast has taken a hit, but a glimmer of hope remains for a partial recovery in 2026

OPEC+ policy shift clashes with demand uncertainty

Commodities, Food & Agri

Energy

OPEC+ policy shift clashes with demand uncertainty

OPEC+ has confirmed its policy change with another significant supply increase

Our latest views on the major central banks

What we expect the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB and Bank of Japan to do over the next few months

, and 2 others

United States

US sentiment slump means trade deals can't come quickly enough

A collapse in economic sentiment suggests Trump's trade deals and tax cuts need to materialise quickly to prevent a downturn

The eurozone is still heading for a slowdown

The eurozone's economic outlook remains bleak

United Kingdom

The UK is relying on EU trade reset to bolster its public finances

What closer UK-EU ties would mean for Britain's economic fortunes

China

United States

China's tariff pain is likely to permeate April data ahead of trade talks

Upcoming economic data will show whether greater policy urgency is needed in China

We're lowering our Asia growth forecasts because of tariffs

We are lowering our GDP growth forecasts for Asia across the board

Widening divergence across the CEE region

Poland and the Czech Republic remain strong, but other countries are struggling

We're changing the outlook for the CIS-4 due to global woes

We've adjusted our views on the CIS-4

FX: Dollar struggles to shake off the negatives

The dollar's bounce has been lacklustre. The shadow of Mar-a-Lago may be weighing

Rates

Rates: a Jekyll and Hyde bond market

The mood music in Treasuries is back to a more normal footing, but that can change...

Report

ING Monthly: The world is caught like a deer in the headlights

Markets have calmed, but don’t be mistaken; we are far from being back to normal