Bundles

1 June 2022

ING Monthly: Searching for the silver lining

June economic update: The global economy has clearly seen better days. As attention shifts to the role of central banks, our economists look at what they might do to combat rising inflation, and how far they could go

In this bundle

Watch: Searching for a silver lining

ING's Global Head of Macro, Carsten Brzeski on what to expect from the global economy in the coming weeks

Inflation: the word on all central bankers’ lips

Inflation is on the lips of every central banker. What can they do to curb surging inflation and will it be enough?

Three scenarios for inflation and central banks

Inflation is uncomfortably high and in the near term, there's unlikely to be much respite for central banks. But the outlook for 2023 and 2024 is…

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Upside risks remain for the commodities complex

Commodities, Food & Agri

Energy

Upside risks remain for the commodities complex

Commodity markets remain vulnerable to Russia-Ukraine developments. Tightness in several commodities means that markets are likely to be more sensitive to…

Central banks to keep hiking amid uncomfortably high inflation

Despite talk of a Fed pause, we expect the US central bank to keep hiking through the autumn, taking rates to 3% around the turn of the year. Meanwhile,…

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Neutral interest rates: phantoms worth chasing?

Officials at the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have started to talk about the neutral level of interest rates again, some louder than others.…

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United States

US: Greater challenges to come for the hardy consumer

The economy looks set to rebound sharply in the second quarter as the resilient consumer continues to spend and businesses remain in expansion mode.…

The eurozone’s muddling through at best

Persistent headwinds are pushing the eurozone into a 'muddling through' scenario, and there is a high probability that the region will see one…

United Kingdom

The Bank of England to keep flying the flag for rate rises into the autumn

An extra government support package means we've upped our forecast for Bank of England rate hikes this year. We now expect moves in June, August and…

China

China: the big concern is still lockdowns

We are keeping our low GDP forecast even though the Chinese government is boosting growth through fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending. We remain…

Asia’s food security – a prisoner’s dilemma

Although energy security has been top of mind since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, in Asia at least, fears over food security are now being driven…

FX: Dollar pauses for thought

Calling the turn in a major dollar bull trend is a dangerous game and despite the recent 3% correction lower we are not brave enough to say that the…

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Rates

Rates: why real rates are the key for direction

A long-run real return is what you get over and above long-run inflation. In Europe, it's still negative. In the US, it's barely positive. Lower…

The Netherlands

Euro focus: Dutch government outlines new spending commitments

With high energy prices, geopolitical turmoil, and the postponement of a minimum tax on multinationals, the Dutch government has presented a budget memo…

Global supply chains won't improve anytime soon

Transport & Logistics

Trade

Global supply chains won’t improve anytime soon

With the war in Ukraine and China’s zero-Covid policy, delays and prolonged supply bottlenecks are defining this year’s world trade outlook.…

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Report

June ING Monthly: Searching for a silver lining - the full report

The world economy has clearly seen better days. As attention shifts to the role of central banks, ING's global network of economists looks at…