In case you missed it: Trump, Draghi and Johnson

Second-quarter GDP in the US, a chance for some early action from the ECB, and a new British Prime Minister; it's happening next week. Disinflationary trends should bring rate cuts in both Russia and Turkey following the footsteps of Korea, Indonesia, South Africa and Ukraine. And what's that we hear, is the ECB tinkering with the goalposts?

In this bundle

United States

Trump leads while Democratic front runners emerge

President Trump's re-election odds are strengthening but a second term is far from certain. In the first of a series of updates to our in-depth…

ECB preview: One final talk before walking the walk

It's a very close call but we expect the European Central Bank to change its forward guidance next week and effectively pre-announce a package of new…

Rates

Rates: The asymmetry in the ECB’s symmetrical inflation target

As our economics team expects the European Central Bank to ease at either next week’s meeting or the one in September, we look at the implications…

United Kingdom

GBP: The pressure is building

Sterling continues its descent as concerns about the Brexit outlook intensify. While there is already a 3% risk premium in EUR/GBP, this is still below…

China

China: GDP growth slumps; Retail sales show warning signs

China's GDP growth has slumped to its slowest pace in almost three decades, as trade tensions weigh on sentiment and activity. While retail sales…

Switzerland

EUR/CHF: It’s beginning to look a lot like 1.05

EUR/CHF is trading close to the lows of the year and it’s not hard to see why. Expect the market to now question the Swiss national bank’s…

CAD: Markets turning more bullish

Net positioning in the Canadian dollar has jumped into long territory in July. We expect markets to be reticent to enter additional long-CAD positions for…

Big shipping concerns as sulphur fuel cap deadline approaches

We're in the final stretch of the long-awaited International Maritime Organization shipping regulation, which will see the global shipping fleet…

United Kingdom

UK: A diminishing war chest

With prime ministerial candidates promising tax cuts and a spending splurge the latest fiscal numbers offer something of a reality check to their plans

Report FX

LATAM FX Talking: The Brazil vs Mexico divergence gains steam

The external risk environment has turned slightly more benign with US-China trade tensions stabilizing and market relief provided by expected rate cuts in…

Nickel: Is the rally sustainable?

LME nickel has gained momentum from a rising number of supply disruption threats and exchange reported stocks continuously drawing down. However, we think…

Turkey

Turkey: Is deeper easing on the way?

We expect a 200bp cut on 25 July, though given increasing concerns about credibility, with the appointment of the new Governor, risks are to the downside.…