General market tone: Wait and see.
Risk sentiment played tug of war with optimism over the strong jobs numbers offset by concerns about conflicting reports on the status of US-China trade developments
Trade war and geopolitical tensions continue to escalate between the US and China, but increasing concerns around Taiwan could risk intensifying the situation
The US administration has threatened China that if there is no constructive outcome from the Xi-Trump meeting in the upcoming G20 gathering, then the US would expand tariffs on Chinese imports to a total of $505 billion, though it has not mentioned the tariffs rate yet.
In terms of what we already know on future tariffs, from 2019, the tariff rates on $200 billion of Chinese imported goods is set to increase to 25% from 10%. We expect China to reciprocate on imports from the US, (i.e., to 25% as announced earlier in August). See our trade teams piece on the impact the US-China trade conflict could have on world trade next year.
Last week's trade inspired optimism in Asia looks short-lived as softer US stocks set the tone for the start of the week in Asia. US sanctions on Iranian oil exports are centre-stage today, with considerable speculation about which countries will manage to get exemptions, and on what the impact on benchmark crude prices will be