FX Outlook 2026: Play the ball, not the man
If 2025 has been about trying to second-guess the moves of the Trump administration, 2026 should reflect more of a return to currency fundamentals. That may mean less focus on the big dollar trend as the Fed drops rates to neutral and keeps them there. Lower volatility should generate even more interest in carry
The golden rule in football defending is ‘play the ball, not the man’. Translated: it’s not about where the player leans, it’s about where the ball ends up.
For most of 2025, markets ‘played the man’, reacting to US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade rhetoric and challenges to Federal Reserve independence. This contributed to an 11% drop in the DXY in the first half of the year – the steepest first-half decline since 1972.
But recent months have marked a shift. With trade deals providing a stabilising anchor, market participants have recalibrated, refocusing on fundamentals: rate differentials, growth trajectories, debt sustainability, and commodity exposure.
We believe this return to disciplined analysis – ‘playing the ball’ – is a preview of what’s to come for FX in 2026. Below are our key calls for next year.
