Covid-19: Every angle to the global response

A roundup of the main developments in the fight against the coronavirus from ING Research's global network of economists and strategists

In this bundle

China

China: Terrible GDP contraction means a fat U recovery

China’s GDP went into deep contraction in 1Q20, and signs of a recovery in activity are mixed. As long as strict social distancing measures are in…

Watch: A glimmer of hope for the oil market

Warren Patterson on what next for the oil market after the demand destruction we've seen from Covid-19 and OPEC's response

Trade

The Covid-19 drop in world trade, and what’s on the other side

In our baseline scenario, world trade falls 9% this year, but in a ‘worst case’ scenario, the fall is 34%. Maintaining global value chains is…

US: Labour pains continue

Jobless claims show the rate of increase in lay-offs is slowing, but they remain quite bad. Meanwhile, the manufacturing plunge adds to fears unemployment…

France

France: Longer lockdown to slash growth and intensify calls for Eurogroup action

As strict lockdown measures are set to remain in place until 11 May in France and won't completely end after that, 2Q20 GDP could fall by 10% to 15%…

Russia

Bank of Russia: Rate cut inevitable

The Bank of Russia has guided for a cut in its 6.0% key rate, with a magnitude likely exceeding the standard 25 basis points. This is a reaction to more…

Credit

Rates

The Fed fuels fallen angels: Forecasting credit spreads on ING’s Covid-19 scenarios

Late last week the US Fed went where no central bank has gone before, indicating that fallen angels (downgraded from investment grade to high yield) would…

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