Are we headed for a currency war?

The triple whammy of greater-than-expected rate cuts in New Zealand, India and Thailand and China letting the yuan slip past seven to the dollar has fuelled President Trump's fury and jawboning but has that increased the risk of FX intervention from the White House? We think there is a 25% probability to such an outcome,but the chances are clearly rising

In this bundle

US FX intervention: What are the chances?

A further tirade from President Trump over the strong dollar begs the question whether he’s prepared to weaken it through FX intervention? We would…

China

Revising yuan forecast

We are revising our USD/CNY forecast following the Chinese government's decision to allow the yuan to cross the 7 handle

United States

President Trump and the Fed - we’ve changed our view

President Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on the Fed to support his efforts on extracting concessions from China on trade. Policymakers appear…

China

China fixes the yuan higher

Today's fixing is an even bigger depreciation move, but some were expecting the fix to be higher still, and the market response is more balanced

What $/CNY through 7.00 means for FX markets

President Trump is accusing China of a ‘major violation’ by lowering the rate of the CNY. The Chinese deny they are using the yuan as a trade…

and

China

USD/CNY pushes above 7.0

The People's Bank of China fixed the renminbi at 6.9225 today, up from 6.8996 on Friday in what they suggest is a response to the latest round of…