WASDE update: Corn and soybean markets tighten

For the global market, the USDA expects 2023/24 corn production to fall to 1,230.2mt this season, down from the earlier estimate of 1,232.6mt. Supply losses from South Africa (-1.3mt), Ukraine (-1mt), Mexico (-1mt), and Russia (-0.4mt) offset supply gains from Argentina (+1mt) and could tighten the global market. On the consumption side, the global corn demand estimates were revised up by 1.5mt to 1,212.2mt. The agency lowered the ending stocks estimates by 2.4mt to 319.6mt at the end of 2023/24. The market was expecting a number closer to 320.9mt. Meanwhile, global beginning estimates were increased from 300.3mt to 301.6mt for 2023/24.

Meanwhile, the domestic corn balance was left unchanged for the year. US 2023/24 ending stocks estimates were kept unchanged at 2,172m bushels, while the market was expecting a number closer to 2,155m bushels.

The USDA kept its 2023/24 domestic soybean ending stocks estimates unchanged at 315m bushels, lower than the average market expectations of around 319m bushels. The agency also left the production and demand estimates unchanged at 4,165m bushels and 2,424m bushels, respectively. Meanwhile, the beginning stock estimates were also left unchanged at 264m bushels for the year.

For the global markets, the USDA revised down the 2023/24 global inventory estimates from 116mt to 114.3mt. This was also marginally lower than the average market expectations of 114.7mt. Global soybean production estimates were reduced by 1.4mt to 396.9mt due to the lower supplies from Brazil (-1mt), and South Africa (-0.4mt). The agency also reduced global demand and beginning stock estimates to 381.9mt and 102.2mt, respectively.

For the US market, the USDA increased its estimates for US wheat inventory at the end of 2023/24 to 673m bushels (+18% YoY), compared to earlier estimates of 658m bushels; higher than the market expectations of 658m bushels. The inventory estimates were revised higher largely on account of declining exports. The agency lowered the US wheat export estimates by 15m bushels to 710m bushels. Meanwhile, the production and consumption estimates were left unchanged at 1,812m bushels and 1,144m bushels, respectively, for the year.

For the global balance, wheat inventory estimates were revised down from 259.4mt to 258.8mt at the end of 2023/24, the lowest since 2015/16, primarily due to falling beginning stocks and a rise in demand. This is also lower than the average market expectations of 259.2mt. The USDA slightly lowered the beginning stock projections by 0.1mt to 271.1mt. The production estimates increased by 1mt to 786.7mt. The rise in the output from Australia (+0.5mt), Russia (+0.5mt), and Argentina (+0.4mt) were partially offset by Europe (-0.3mt). Meanwhile, global consumption estimates increased from 797.5mt to 799mt following the increased feed and residual use from Europe, and Indonesia for 2023/24.