Rates Spark: Bund yields point to strong demand for euro safety

While relatively calm market days like Monday seem to be business-as-usual, the Bund market is suggesting a structural shift away from the world as we knew it before Trump’s tariffs. The 10Y Bund yield is now equal to the swap rate, which is similar to the levels just after Liberation Day. To put this in perspective, just after the German spending announcements, the 10Y Bund traded 17bp above swaps. As such, the demand for Bunds continues to be strong, despite the improvement in other risk indicators such as the VIX and MOVE indices over the past weeks.

The outperformance of the Bund captures the uncertainty around US tariffs, yet may also be a gauge of the “Sell America” theme. With an EU deal looking difficult, investors flock to Bunds to hide from any renewed turmoil. But it’s probably not just domestic investors looking for Bunds. Whilst Bund yields signal a risk-off environment, European equity markets have recovered almost all losses since Liberation Day. The STOXX index is up some 15% since its April lows. When taken together, the strong performance of Bunds, eurozone equities and the euro suggest that foreign investors are interested in buying euro assets in these uncertain times.

One could argue that the German spending story is moving to the background, thereby pushing Bund yields lower, but still-elevated, longer-dated real rates suggest this is not the case. The 5Y5Y implied real rate from euro swaps remains some 30bp higher than before Germany’s spending announcement. And since Liberation Day, this real rate has not nudged lower. Looking at all these dynamics together, we see Bunds as a sound safe haven asset to take a position in for more volatility ahead. Whilst the German spending story could push Bund yields higher later in the year, for now, global risk sentiment is the more important driver.