Key events in EMEA next week

The Czech National Bank will hold its first monetary policy meeting since the outbreak of the Ukrainian war next Thursday; the conflict has largely silenced the central bank for some time. However, recent statements by the board suggest that little has changed in the CNB's thinking and higher inflation simply calls for higher interest rates. We expect the discussion to be in the 50-100bp range. However, our base case scenario sees a 75bp hike in the key rate to 5.25% and there's an increased risk of more rises to come.

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