Key events in EMEA next week

The highlight of the week in Hungary is the release of the April inflation print, although we don’t think we will have too much to cheer about. Despite the anti-inflationary measures in place, we expect a further acceleration in headline inflation as supply-side shocks and the impact of a weaker forint spill over. Food, durables and services will be the main drivers of the pick up in price pressure. Core inflation is expected to show an even stronger acceleration (here the anti-inflationary measures are having a more muted impact), moving close to the double-digit territory already in April. Based on seasonal patterns, the budget balance could show some improvement in April, but we won’t rule out another downside surprise as the expenditure side remains under pressure.