Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

In October, we envisage inflation of 2.1% month-on-month, translating into 11.9% on an annual basis, slightly up from 11.7% a month ago.

Monthly inflation is likely to be impacted by exchange rate developments on some items like transport, while adjustment in electricity fee should be another driver.

Russian CPI is likely to pick up from 3.7% YoY in September to 4.0% YoY in October, however, this is unlikely to be market-moving for Russia, as the central bank is clearly downplaying the importance of near-term CPI pressure and guiding towards below-target CPI for 2021.

Also, statistical releases next week will obviously be overshadowed by the US elections and Russian FX sales for November, which are likely to stay at an elevated level of $2.5 bn, including extra FX sales for one-off transactions with Sberbank and Aeroflot.

Given the better manufacturing readings in the Eurozone and Germany in October, we should see also some improvement in the Czech PMI reading next week, and also September industrial production might improve as somehow weak August readings were caused by company holidays.

Also, retails sales might signal solid households demand, but only temporary because October brought new restrictions due to second-wave of Covid and so far improving trend was abruptly disturbed at the beginning of 4Q20.

A quiet week in Poland in terms of economic releases.

We expect a small decline in manufacturing PMI, reflecting worsening outlook in the face of the pandemic. The central bank meeting is unlikely to bring new news.
MPC speakers confirmed that the central bank aims to keep rates on hold for a long time and remains unconcerned with PLN weakness.