Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

Economic sentiment in Hungary this month likely continued its decline after peaking in July 2018. This is mainly because of the global uncertainties and a growing conviction that economic activity is decelerating.

As a result, the National Bank of Hungary is probably not going to change rates this time, despite the above-target inflation. The central bank will instead focus on the expected cooling effects of the global economic slowdown, the global trend of lowering rates, the new retail bond and the stricter-than-expected fiscal policy. At the same time, wage growth is still expected to be in double-digit territory.

The final 2Q GDP reading from Poland should confirm 4.4% year-on-year growth with stronger private consumption (4.6%) and weaker investment growth (8%), compared with the previous quarter. Activity data from July suggests the economy should also achieve relatively stable results in 3Q.

Flash CPI should show a lower reading due to the drop in fuel prices. A reliable calculation of the index's value in August will be available with the publication of GUS's statistical bulletin (Monday), after the release of the calendar.