Expect no surprises from the Hungarian central bank
In Hungary, the key event of a rather quiet week is the monetary policy meeting of the central bank.
We are confident that the National Bank of Hungary won't ruin any trader’s, portfolio manager’s or treasurer’s vacations with a surprise move. The EUR/HUF has stabilised between the 322-325 range. Moreover, with oil prices heading south and the June inflation reading undershooting the NBH forecast, we don’t see any reason why the central bank could change its monetary policy or its main messages regarding the forward guidance.
Turkey to tighten?
We expect the Turkish central bank to deliver a measured 100bp tightening on the back of the sharp deterioration in the inflation outlook and ongoing deterioration in forward-looking expectations.
Although the rebalancing has already started, it is likely to be the main theme for the rest of 2018.