Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

We expect stable retail sales - close to 8% year-on-year. According to official GUS surveys, the propensity of consumers to make major purchases has not diminished so far, despite the slowdown in the eurozone.

Activity data for December to be released next week should be more or less in line with November. Industrial output is likely to show some mild acceleration supported by more intense electricity and heat output in response to the cold weather, as average temperatures in Russia in December were around 5 degrees Celsius lower than in December last year.

Household consumption has likely remained elevated at around 3% YoY, as Russians stocked up on expensive durables ahead of a VAT hike on 1 January. So even if the reported figures are in line or higher than forecasts, one should expect a much more modest result throughout 2019 on higher taxation and a likely deceleration in retail lending growth from the high 20%+ rates seen last year.