Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

We expect strong industrial production in April (9.5% year-on-year), with calendar effects adding two percentage points to the headline. On a seasonally adjusted basis (approximately 7.1% YoY), we are still seeing robust contributions from the export sector and those closely related to construction. Polish industry seems to be surprisingly resilient – we don't see imminent signs of a slowdown, even the most negative sentiment index (PMI) is returning towards the 50-point threshold, which signals expansion.

Labour market data should reveal a rebound in wages (6.5% YoY in April) after a surprisingly soft March. A negative drag is visible in the case of construction. However the number of companies planning wage increases - reported in the National Bank of Poland's (NBP's) survey, is consistent with a further acceleration in the coming months. The magnitude of increase is unlikely to be strong; we expect growth to stabilise in the 7-8% YoY range.

Retail sales should increase from 1.8% to 7.1% YoY (constant prices). Last month's deceleration - and thus the current rebound - are solely related to Easter effects. Nevertheless, overall sentiment remains good. Consumption will be supported in the coming months by the introduction of new social programmes including: 1) the lump-sum retirement payment in May and 2) child benefit expansion in July.