Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

Following the December hike, all eyes are on the Central Bank of Turkey's next move. The policy rate is now comfortably above inflation, currently below 15%, and we do not expect a rate change this month. However, the CBT will likely maintain its current cautious stance and be ready to move if it sees a further substantial deterioration in pricing pressures, given the still-challenging inflation outlook with recent upside surprises.

There are no key events this week in Poland. We estimate net inflation to have declined from 4.3 to 3.7% YoY in December. This is likely owing to categories that have been hard to measure during the pandemic, like package holidays, which have been volatile in recent months. Also, there are some base effects on airline tickets. Categories linked to demand, like services, were likely elevated, given solid spending and price pressures among companies linked to new restrictions and labour shortages.