Key events in EMEA and Latam next week
Next week should be relatively subdued on the data front but positive news is expected from Poland. Rebounding retail sales and industrial production, as well as decent labour market fundamentals, point to a pretty solid January
Poland: Solid activity in January
Industrial production should recover from 2.8% in December to 5.5% year-on-year in January; the disappointment in December was largely related to the construction sector, which plays a minor role in both January and February. Exports maintained a decent performance. Retail sales should also rebound from 4.7% to 8.0% YoY; the December reading was dragged down by clothing (due to weather effects) and food sales. Both categories should recover in January while demand for durable goods should remain solid.
Labour market data should also paint a positive picture. We expect an increase in wages from 6.1% to 7.3% YoY; the December reading was reduced due to a smaller contribution from the mining sector. Also, the minimal wage hike in January should add approximately 0.4 percentage points to the headline figure. Enterprise employment is likely to be lower when compared to previous years but a rapid drop reflects a statistical anomaly rather than a structural change. Each year the statistical office rebalances the panel of enterprises adding new companies to the sample. In 2018, such a procedure resulted in an abnormal increase in employment, which likely won't repeat this year.
EMEA and Latam Economic Calendar
Download
Download article
15 February 2019
Our view on next week’s key events This bundle contains 3 articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).