Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

We expect industrial production to decelerate from 5.8% to 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting negative calendar effects. Seasonally-adjusted figures should be similar to the previous month's. Recent data suggests export-oriented sectors are still performing well despite the slowdown in the eurozone. Some support from non-durable consumer goods producers is very likely as well, given the expansion of child benefits.

Retail sales should rise by 6.6% YoY despite negative car sales. Consumer confidence is at a historic high and there are no imminent threats to suggest this will change.

Wages should moderate from 7.4% to 6.8% YoY. We expect a stabilisation in the coming months while a sharp rise in the minimum wage should significantly increase the 2020 figures. More information is available in our report here.

Russian consumer and producer activity indicators for August are likely to remain subdued in August. Poor weather conditions at the end of the summer likely limited consumer spending, as well as demand for electricity (air conditioning), while adverse calendar effects may have reduced output in the manufacturing sector.

At the same time, we will be looking for subtle signs of a pick up in industrial and construction activity along with an acceleration in budget spending growth. The recent budget statistics show an acceleration in state expenditure growth from 3% YoY in 7M19 to 19% YoY in August. This will likely be downgraded somewhat but may go up further to 30% YoY for September-December, if the budget plan is executed in full.