Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

In Hungary, the earlier-than-usual Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting- due to a national holiday on 23 October- will likely be a non-event given (1) the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) made a lot of adjustments just three weeks ago; (2) one of them was that the NBH will do major adjustments only quarterly when it releases its new Inflation Report; and (3) the September inflation readings didn’t provide any major surprise as core inflation was at 2.4% year-on-year.

We expect Russian economic activity indicators for September to show signs of softening compared to the summer months. Industrial output should slow after the completion of large state-sponsored CAPEX projects and as result of calendar effects. The preliminary gauge of consumer sentiment also points to a likely deceleration in spending growth following the end of the electoral cycle, the recent budget policy decision and a new round of external uncertainties.

We expect sub-consensus industrial production (3.9%YoY), wages (6.7%) and retail sales (7%) figures in September. Monthly activity data from 3Q18 still suggests GDP growth of close to 5% YoY, but given the worsening of nearly all confidence indicators, a slowdown in the 4Q is the most likely scenario.