Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

The final CPI reading for December should confirm low 1.1% year-on-year growth. Core inflation likely fell by another 0.1 percentage point to 0.6% YoY. We also expect solid industrial production in December (7.3% YoY), above local economists' consensus (4.7%YoY). Labour market information should surprise negatively with weaker wages – we expect a drop to 6.7% YoY from 7.7%.

The only - but still key, data release from Hungary is the December inflation reading. After a huge drop last time, we see the headline inflation rate falling to 2.7% YoY. The main reason behind the expected drop is the significant decrease in fuel prices. Still, we expect core inflation to increase to 2.8% YoY, mainly on the back of services.

Helped by oil prices and a stable currency, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) has managed to tame CPI inflation. We expect inflation to end-2018 at 3.2% YoY. This is quite an achievement, despite benefiting from positive supply-side developments, as the figure stood at 5.4% in mid-2018. We see core inflation little changed at around 2.5%.