Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

Hungarian inflation is set to fall from the eight-year high mainly on the back of base effect provided by energy prices.

Additionally, we saw a significant drop in fuel prices in February and food price inflation is expected to ease somewhat. We hardly see the central bank minutes from the February meeting as a game-changer as they were based on a different reality. Since then, the global outlook has become gloomier and several central banks have cut rates.

While fuel prices declined by 1.5% MoM in February, its YoY dynamics slightly accelerated to 3.8% due to the base effect.

Rapid food prices as in January should not repeat, but food prices remain elevated despite stagnating in MoM terms. In addition to that, further single-digit increase in cigarette prices is assumed due to excise duties growth. All in all, we expect February inflation to slightly accelerate to 3.7% YoY.

Real economic activity should bring mixed figures, as industry might remain weaker while retail sales should continue their solid performance – this month without any calendar biases.