Key events in EMEA and LATAM next week

We don’t see the National Bank of Hungary altering its monetary policy, we think it will keep rates unchanged using its IRS tenders to provide the much-needed dovish impetus. In line with recent global movements, we expect the PMI and confidence indicators to slip, but to remain at a level that suggests further optimism.

We do not see any rating action by either S&P or Moody’s on Romania. Still, the reports are likely to highlight the negatives. With no fiscal consolidation in sight, Romanian credit looks exposed to rating downgrades in case of potential adverse economic shocks.

The second reading of 4Q17 GDP will present a detailed breakdown of growth. The market's attention should be focused on the pace of the investment recovery, where we expect solid 11.4% year-on-year growth. The CSO statistical bulletin (published this Friday) will provide guidance as to whether the expansion was driven by the public or private sector.