Key events in developed markets next week

This coming week’s data is for July and the story should remain fairly positive with industrial production and retail sales continuing to recover from the lockdown measures.

The ISM survey posted decent gains while strong auto sales and higher gasoline prices are providing solid bedrock for the retail sales number. Inflation should also pick-up a little further given rising gasoline and food prices in particular. However, high-frequency data suggests that the US recovery story is showing signs of stalling as a rising number of Covid-19 led to reintroduced containment measures.

Confidence has taken a massive hit while the employment situation is looking more challenging as many businesses that had re-opened are forced to close due to restrictions. This is leading to job losses in many areas while the deadlock in Washington over another fiscal support package means that 30 million-plus people that had been receiving the $600 per week additional Federal unemployment benefit will no longer do so.

The combination of weaker confidence, a tougher jobs market and a squeeze on household income means that the outlook for August and September activity data isn't great.

After this week’s encouraging retail sales figures, the Eurozone focus will be on how industrial production and exports recovery is shaping up. Hopes for a 'V' outside retail are smaller, so expect a slower recovery in production and exports.