Key events in developed markets, from 3 November

Parliament will be formally dissolved next week, kick-starting a highly uncertain election campaign. The UK will go to the polls on 12 December, and as things stand, the Conservatives look set to gain a sizable majority. That could help PM Johnson get his Brexit deal through Westminster in January.

But things are rarely so simple in Brexit, and in fact the election is a big gamble for the Conservatives. The party is vulnerable in Scotland and certain areas of Southern England, and it will face a big challenge to win enough seats in ''Labour leave" areas. That means markets also shouldn't discount the possibility of a Labour-led minority government, should the Conservatives fail to gain an outright majority.

With an uncertain outlook for the UK election and Brexit, the Bank of England is likely to retain an air of caution next week. 2020 looks set to be another turbulent year politically, and we suspect this will continue to keep downward pressure on investment. There are also tentative signs that the jobs market is beginning to turn, or at least it is no longer tightening. While policymakers are likely to notionally retain a tightening bias, the cost of waiting before raising rates is very low - particularly when you throw in the deteriorating global backdrop. We expect interest rates to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.