Articles
30 October 2017

GBP: The ‘Carney Put’

Despite a tricky month of politics for GBP, speculation of a Bank of England rate hike has provided a backstop to the currency sliding lower. As long as the 'Carney put' stays in place, we remain constructive on GBP heading into year-end and look for GBP/USD at 1.35-1.36 on a steeper UK rate curve.

BoE rate hike talk has been a backstop to GBP sliding lower

  • It would be a major surprise if the Bank of England (BoE) did not hike this week given their recent signals. We expect to see the 'Carney put' in full force for GBP, with the BoE hiking by 25bp and keeping the currency supported. Indeed, amid the heightened political uncertainty, speculation of a BoE rate hike has provided a backstop to GBP falling meaningfully. In the absence of this 'Carney put', GBP would have conceivably been trading much lower than it currently is.
  • If there's one central bank not concerned about the macro effects of a stronger currency it’s the BoE. Sure the activity data has been a bit mixed of late (understandable given the economic uncertainty), but it’s becoming clear that the Bank wants to prevent the emergence of a genuine stagflationary environment. A couple of rate hikes may not derail UK economic growth, but could certainly keep price pressures in check – especially when currency dynamics have been playing a stronger inflationary role. Some BoE officials may also see the effects of GBP's post-Brexit depreciation as being less transitory – and more persistent – than originally thought. Be it directly or indirectly, a weak GBP is playing a more prominent role in the BoE’s policy thinking.

'Gradual tightening' signal gives the BoE policy flexibility

  • With a rate hike all but priced in, what matters this week is the type of tightening cycle the Bank signals. Markets have got a bit of cold feet in recent weeks, so the follow through of a 25bp rate hike should be mildly GBP supportive.
  • But what could really drive GBP higher is if the Bank signals that this is more than just a 'one-and-done' move and instead the start of a gradual tightening cycle. Gradual is a pretty fluid concept – and while the next rate hike will inevitably be data-dependent, this laissez-faire forward guidance won't stop markets from bringing forward their expectations for additional BoE rate hikes.
  • Assuming we get a 25bp rate hike this week, we would only expect GBP to move lower if there were (a) more than two dissenters or (b) an explicit statement ruling out another rate hike in the near-term – both of which would see the UK rate curve flatten as markets price out additional BoE tightening. The latter option seems highly unlikely – and somewhat inconsistent with typical central bank forward guidance that aims to retain an element of policy flexibility.
  • Moreover, for the idea of the 'Carney put' to work – and the pound to remain supported – the BoE will need to at least give off the illusion that additional rate hikes are warranted. This can be wrapped with the usual data- and Brexit-dependent caveats, but shouldn't necessarily see markets price out further tightening following this week's meeting.
1.35

GBP/USD year-end target under a steeper UK rate curve

GBP/USD reaction under various Nov BoE meeting scenarios

 - Source: Source: ING model estimates, Bloomberg. Note: Spot reference for GBP/USD is 1.3150 (as of 30 Oct 2017)
Source: Source: ING model estimates, Bloomberg. Note: Spot reference for GBP/USD is 1.3150 (as of 30 Oct 2017)

Bottom line

We look for GBP/USD at 1.35-1.36 over the next month as the front-end of the UK rate curve steepens, while speculation of additional BoE rate hikes should prevent any meaningful move below 1.30. For EUR/GBP, we remain comfortable with the 0.88-0.90 trading range for now. We're not exactly shooting for the stars because we're aware of the Brexit-related risks stemming from the December EU summit – which could be a make-or-break moment for GBP.


Disclaimer

"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.

This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.

The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.

Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.

ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).