Europe’s e-truck market gains speed – but the road is uneven

Battery-electric trucks are making inroads as the most efficient zero-emission option for short and medium-haul trucking. The fleet of six million medium and heavy-duty trucks is responsible for 6% of total annual CO₂ emissions in the EU. European truck manufacturers are facing decarbonisation pressure, and fleet owners are also being incentivised.

CO₂ targets require a 15% reduction by 2025 and a 43% reduction by 2030 for new truck deliveries, compared to the 2019-2020 baseline. Manufacturers are on track to hit 2025 targets and are likely to receive flexibility to use CO₂ credits earned in the years leading up to 2030 to meet the next hurdle. Nevertheless, further (fuel) efficiency improvements in diesel technology alone will fall short of meeting the 2030 target (and the nearly 7% reduction per year), so ramping up zero-emission truck production is essential.

Achieving the 2030 milestone requires the market to jump from 4% to roughly a third of all new medium and heavy-duty truck sales across the EU. The International Council of Clean Transportation (ICCT) projects an electric fleet of 290,000 to 340,000 trucks by 2030, rising from 22,500 in September 2025. The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) estimates that this figure could be as high as 400,000.

For the front-running countries in Northwestern Europe, this transition was well underway in 2025 – although for several member states, the process has barely begun. Most EU-wide projections fall short of this targeted number, and the uptake isn’t self-reinforcing just yet. Either way, the composition of European truck sales and the market will change significantly over the next decade.

_{*Based on registrations and measured with the so-called ‘VECTO-calculation’ certificate at the moment of registration and the average production.}

The uptake of e-trucks is now underway, and for a clear assessment of progress, we should look at the heavy segment (>16 tonnes) as e-vans with battery packs more often exceed the 3.5 tonne threshold. The first CO₂ reduction hurdle from mid-2025 has pushed the start of series production and sparked the first acceleration of heavy truck deliveries in the third quarter, also on the back of pre-orders. We’re talking about just 3% of the market, but this was a clear step up from the previous year (1.5%). With a mix of sticks (CO₂ reduction obligations, CO₂-linked mileage charging) and carrots (subsidies* and fiscal benefits in member states), we think its market share could exceed 5% in 2026. This is not a giant leap; order intake isn’t bullish, but it’s still a step forward, and more acceleration will be needed in the following years to meet the targets.

_{*The majority of the revenues from mileage charging in the Netherlands, for example, circles back as purchase subsidies for new e-trucks. This unlocks much more budget.}

Individual manufacturers have already been granted three years to clear debts in case they don’t reach the July 2025-July 2026 target of -15%. Flexibility around accumulating CO₂ credits in future years effectively lowers the 2030 hurdle. This reduces immediate pressure – fines remain distant – but could slow scaling and cost reductions. A general review of the CO₂ framework for trucks is scheduled for 2027, but this will likely materialise sooner.

Most heavy e-trucks hit the road in Germany and are supported by strong incentives such as subsidies and full exemptions from the relatively high mileage charges (MAUT). The next largest countries in sales, France and the Netherlands, also have purchase subsidies. Front-runner countries, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden had already posted double-digit registration figures in the first to third quarters of 2025, given the similar incentives. We expect that these fiscal programmes will support further uptake in 2026. In contrast, Central and Eastern Europe and Southern European countries without fiscal support have seen minimal uptake.

Countries implementing the Eurovignette Directive – such as Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands – and linking mileage charging with discounts for e-trucks, will see further support for the inflow of e-trucks.

Retailers with dense distribution networks and charging facilities at warehouses or depots can already operate e-trucks economically (an estimated 30% of current sales). Large logistics providers like DSV also have ambitions to build up their e-fleets, and companies like Amazon have started to deploy e-trucks for parcel shipments. To do so, charging facilities must fit the business model (fast charging when intensively used, slow charging when overnight parking is possible).

Following Volvo, other major brands started series production and deliveries in 2025. MAN started delivering its new eTGX tractor midway through the year, following Mercedes’ e-Actros, which made up a large part of the deliveries in 2025. DAF started series production and deliveries last summer after a delay, while Scania is planning to scale as well. Market maturity will allow other brands to catch up in market share, while Volvo’s rapid growth will naturally begin to slow.

In early 2025, Volvo and Renault accounted for nearly half of deliveries. Electrification lowers entry barriers for new players, particularly those from China, such as BYD. Uptime and after-sales are critically important in the truck market, but new suppliers could still rattle the market by collaborating with existing players and forcing new prices down.

The new generation of electric tractor units (Mercedes’ E-Actros and MAN EGTX) offers ranges of 450–500km, with 600km already achievable in Volvo’s latest model. A range of 800km is also in development, though weight may limit further gains. A positive factor for the loading capacity is that e-trucks are now allowed four tonnes of extra weight on European roads. But driving with a large or fully charged battery isn’t always efficient due to longer charging times. Therefore, aligning vehicle configuration with its intended use is becoming increasingly important for operators and fleet owners.

Most e-trucks are currently deployed in regional and national transport, especially in urban areas. In medium and long-distance road transportation and on the spot market, where ties with shippers are less strong, competition is tough, and margins are tight, adoption of e-trucks is much more challenging. Transport companies argue that most shippers are not willing to pay a premium. And in international transportation, HVO – which is not much more expensive than diesel – is often the way to go to report net-CO₂ reduction (scope 1-3 emissions) for freight owners. This means further adoption of electrification is less evident and more challenging than the first wave of regional distribution.

Electric trucks are still two to three times as expensive as diesel trucks, with prices ranging from €250,000 to €350,000 for tractive units. This results in a higher total cost of ownership (TCO), although this also depends heavily on the use case. Purchase prices have started to come down, but they will remain significantly higher in the years to come due to continued development and extended ranges. However, battery prices, the most important component of e-trucks, fell from $148 to $108 per kWh between 2023 and 2025 and are expected to decline further – although ‘Made in Europe’ requirements could slow the impact of this. Scaling production and intensified competition will also lead to lower prices. An E-Actros 600 tractor, for instance, now costs under €300,000. Operational costs are usually lower*, but some maintenance items (e.g., tyres) wear faster. Higher upfront costs deter many hauliers, making collaboration and coordination with clients essential.

_{*While energy costs are lower, some elements of maintenance are more costly. The lifecycle of tyres is, for example, 20-30% shorter because of higher wear.}

Electricity costs vary widely by country, with charging location and contract terms (including own generation) making the charging mix an important factor. Charging at a public fast charging station, like Milence, cost €0.399 per kWh in 2025, while depot charging (including warehousing sites) can be two or three times cheaper. The higher capital expenditure of an e-truck needs to be compensated on the mile; with lower electricity costs, the case will be viable earlier.

Around 65%-70% of the national and long-haul deployed trucks in Europe are expected to charge privately, and 30-35% will charge publicly. The private share appears to be higher in small countries like the Netherlands and Belgium, and in the case of regional transportation, the figure is expected to turn out as high as 90%. Charging at third-party locations (other companies) is also becoming increasingly common.

In the case of charging flexibility, electricity prices can turn out significantly lower, but for intensive use cases, this won’t be the case. Either way, the spread is much bigger than for diesel. E-trucks have a more challenging business case in countries with low diesel prices and no emissions-linked mileage charging, such as Poland.

ETS 2 delay from 2027 to 2028 is a setback for cost-levelling

In Europe, a separate emissions trading system (ETS 2) leads to an extra fuel charge for diesel. This will add another €0.13/litre to the diesel fuel bill, which comes on top of excise duties and tolls. This will further narrow the cost difference between e-trucks and diesel trucks. However, the start has been delayed from 2027 to 2028.

_{*The ETS 2-system starts with a fixed CO2 price of €45 per tonne, but this could change to a floating rate afterwards. Just as with the ETS system, carbon credits are gradually reduced towards 2050}

TCO parity for e-trucks in Europe is expected to be reached before 2030 with the incorporation of external costs. Currently, we’re not there yet. Deployment therefore requires closer collaboration with clients to share charging facilities and costs. Fixed end-to-end routes are often chosen to start operating e-trucks. In practice, we see use cases where journeys are split into sections of around 400-500km to make operations feasible for longer routes. Daimler trucks and Volvo are also demonstrating long-distance electric transport for their own factory supplies.

A crucial condition for the future of e-trucks is charging infrastructure. Massive development across Europe will be required in the coming years, and progress will be assessed alongside fleet growth and market share when evaluating CO₂ legislation for trucks. While most trips fit within range limits, public fast charging is essential for a broader adoption and expansion of the market. Under the European AFIR directive, fast-charging stations (≥350–370 kW) must be available every 60km along major corridors by 2030, enabling approximately 250km of range per hour of charging. Eventually, a network of mW charging (MCS) stations will need to be introduced as well.

ICCT projects that, in total, 150,000-175,000 private chargers and 60,000-80,000 public chargers for heavy-duty vehicles ranging between 22kW-750kW will be necessary by 2030, as well as 4,000-5,300 megawatt chargers. 20 minutes of charging would then suffice for 250-300 km. Milence has opened several locations in the past years, mainly along the so-called TEN-T corridors, with more coming. By mid-2025, however, the EU only counted roughly 1,100 public charging stations (mostly in Northwestern Europe), highlighting the challenge here.

Installing suitable charging facilities at private sites is not always straightforward. In some countries, grid capacity is a major constraint. For example, in the Netherlands, waiting times for grid upgrades can exceed five years, while France faces fewer congestion and capacity issues. These challenges complicate the transition and slow progress. While TCO is important, infrastructure may ultimately be the decisive factor for growth.