Articles
13 March 2020

EUR/USD: What’s next?

With global uncertainty rising and EUR/USD volatility increasing, the game has changed for the cross. We look at various scenarios for the likely future EUR/USD path

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Source: ING

Scenario analysis based on four macro & political themes

Four factors stand out as key EUR/USD drivers over the next one to two years. These are: (i) Impact of Covid-19 on the real sector; (ii) Central banks response; (iii) Fiscal response; (iv) Politics. Above we outline our baseline and alternative assumptions for these inputs – and the corresponding EUR/USD profiles. As a base case we are now split between scenario 2 and scenario 3.

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