Can technology be the climate saviour?

Technology could reduce energy-related CO2 emissions by 64% globally. This is close to the emissions reduction targets of 2050, but the 2030 targets are missed. It will take time for new technologies to be implemented, while in the meantime the global economy continues to grow.

ING has analysed technological developments in energy-intensive sectors. The report addresses technologies for energy efficiency, electrification and renewables, and presents ING’s ‘Positive Tech Scenario’. The Paris Agreement climate targets for 2030 will be missed, but technology can reduce energy-related carbon emissions from 33 gigatons to 12 by 2050 (-64%) As such, technology can deliver a low carbon economy towards that date.

ING’s Positive Tech Scenario allows for continued economic growth, absorbs increases in the global population and aspirational middle classes. These trends could increase energy-related emissions by 34 gigatons. Energy efficiency reduces emissions by 35 gigatons. Electrification and a shift towards renewables add another 20 gigatons.

Many green technologies initially require government policies to become cost competitive and achieve scale. A less emphasised need for policy is to correct unintended feedback loops. For instance, while the switch to electric vehicles is expected to reduce demand for oil, this could cause the oil price to fall and spur demand from shipping and aviation. Strong policy (regulation, subsidies and most of all carbon pricing) is required to eliminate these side-effects. Policy coordination at a global level is most effective.