Asia week ahead: China’s trade data and GDP reports from Indonesia and the Philippines

China and Taiwan will release trade data next week. We expect both to report slower export growth with Taiwan possibly even posting a contraction. Import growth should however slow even faster than exports resulting in larger trade surpluses, which would help GDP growth.

Indonesia and the Philippines report third-quarter GDP figures next week. Indonesia is expected to post a 5.5% year-on-year expansion, helped by strong exports and robust manufacturing activity.

In the Philippines, third-quarter GDP will likely settle at 5.2%YoY, a slowdown from the previous quarter after the boost from the May presidential election fades. Surging inflation likely capped household spending although the recent pickup in bank lending could offset the consumption slowdown.

India’s September industrial production figure should show some improvement from the -0.8%YoY pace registered in August, as manufacturing PMI indices point to a modest improvement in output from the previous month, which should translate into about a 2%YoY increase.

China will release loan data sometime next week. After the unexpectedly strong growth posted in September, overall lending could show a smaller monthly increase. This should still be strong compared to the previous years’ fourth-quarter loan growth as the Chinese government urges banks to support the economy.

Korea will release the latest job numbers with expectations for the jobless rate to rise with health/social work jobs declining, coupled with potential job cuts stemming from sluggish manufacturing activity.

Meanwhile, inflation in both China and Taiwan is expected to slow. The PPI inflation report from China could be a market mover as it could post a contraction, reflecting the weakness of the economy.