Asia week ahead: Tokyo and Singapore inflation, Chinese one-year rate decision

Flash purchasing managers’ index data will be released on Monday, followed by Tokyo’s consumer price index on Thursday. Tokyo prices are seen easing slightly amid energy subsidy programmes and stabilisation of fresh food prices. But prices excluding fresh food and energy are likely to remain at a 1.9% rate. In terms of PMIs, we believe that the services component will rise a bit more on solid wage growth. The manufacturing PMI is likely to fall thanks to US tariffs.

We expect consumer price inflation to fall to 0.9% year on year on 24 March, driven by lower import costs and broad-based moderation across major goods and services categories. The fading effects of past goods and services tax (GST) hikes also might affect the data.

China’s one-year rate is likely to remain unchanged at 2.0% on Monday when medium-term lending facility rates are updated. We’ll get our first look at industrial profits data in 2025 on Thursday. In particular, we’ll watch to see if profit growth can return to positive territory despite an unfavourable base effect from last year.

Taiwan’s February industrial production data is set for release on Tuesday. The impact of the Lunar New Year may result in a sharp uptick in YoY growth to the high teens, with our forecast at 19.6% YoY.