Asia week ahead: China releases data on GDP, trade, retail sales, housing prices

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Almost all of China’s key data is set for release. We start with China’s trade data on Tuesday. We expect the very strong export growth in the first two months of the year to moderate in March, with exports up 8.8% year-on-year and imports up 10.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of $108.2bn. On Thursday, China releases its first-quarter GDP. We’re currently looking for growth to slow to 4.7% YoY in the January-March period, down from 5.0% in the fourth quarter. China’s monthly activity data and 70-city housing prices will be released on Thursday. Other than industrial production, which we expect to grow around 5.5% YoY, economic activity data is likely to remain rather soft in March. Retail sales are projected to slow to 2.5% YoY, while fixed‑asset investment is expected to remain subdued at around 1.9% YoY year‑to‑date. Housing prices are expected to stay in negative territory, but any moderation in the downturn would be an encouraging sign.