ASEAN Morning Bytes
General market tone: Wait and see.
With no fresh reports on trade talks between the US and China, risk sentiment ebbed as the US trade balance swelled.
EM Space: No news on the trade front while the ECB meets on Thursday
- General Asia: Markets will remain in holding pattern on Thursday with no fresh reports on the US-China trade negotiations save for rumors of President Trump pushing hard for the deal to boost the equity market and seal a reelection bid in 2020. The ECB meets later in the session with most players still focused on Friday’s US jobs numbers.
- Thailand: The Constitutional Court today announces its ruling on the Thai Raksa Chart Party, the party linked to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, for posing Thai Princess as its prime ministerial candidate for the 24 March elections. A possible dissolution of the party could be a trigger for public protests. With just two more weeks for elections, the political risks will increasingly weigh on local financial markets. In a sharp reversal of fortune, the Thai baht shifted from Asia’s best-performer this year until February to worst-performer in March, swapping the place with the Indian rupee. We now see upside risk to our end-1Q19 Our USD/THB forecast of 32.00.
- Indonesia: The financial markets are closed today for the Saka New Year holiday. The government is targeting growth of 5.3% - 5.5% for 2020, some pick-up from 5.3% forecast for 2019, as inflation is likely to remain subdued. The higher growth target was announced a few weeks ahead of Jokowi’s reelection bid as the incumbent holds a commanding lead in the polls.
- Philippines: Newly appointed Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas governor Diokno indicated he would like to “expedite” the pace of reserve requirement ratio cuts to carry on the agenda of his predecessor. Diokno went as far as to mention a possible timing for the cut, hinting that a reduction may happen as early as May. The new governor also indicated that he would be more circumspect when speaking about inflation and the Peso.
What to look out for: US jobs data and China trade
- Australia retail sales and trade (7 March)
- Malaysia GIR (7 March)
- EZ GDP and ECB meeting (7 March)
- Fed Williams and Mester speech (7 March)
- Japan GDP (8 March)
- Taiwan trade and inflation (8 March)
- US NFP employment (8 March)
- China trade (8 March)
Download
Download article
7 March 2019
Good MornING Asia - 7 March 2019 This bundle contains 2 articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).