ASEAN Morning Bytes
General market tone: Wait and watch.
Asian markets may steady on bargain hunting as investors hope for the Fed policy easing.
EM Space: Disappointing US manufacturing data sparks calls for Fed cut
- General Asia: Poor manufacturing data out from the US coupled with a dovish Fed official pushed some speculation that the Fed could cut rates sooner. Oil markets dipped in reaction to global growth fears, but supportive comments from Saudi Arabia kept oil from falling further.
- Malaysia: Painting a mixed picture of GDP growth in the current quarter, the trade growth returned to positive territory in April (read more here) but manufacturing slump deepened in May. Absent underlying drivers, our forecast of a slight pick-up in GDP growth in 2Q19 (to 4.6% from 4.5% in 1Q) relies on a favourable base effect. We forecast no more BNM policy easing this year.
- Thailand: Released this morning, manufacturing PMI fell to 50.7 in May from 51.0 in April. Although still in positive territory, a contrast with most Asian countries reporting sub-50 reading, we expect weak manufacturing continue to weighing down GDP growth in the current quarter. And with the inflation on a receding trend, the BoT has more room to ease the policy to support growth. Look out for CPI data for May later today.
- Philippines: The Philippine Senate approved a tax on so-called sin products, levying higher taxes on tobacco and electronic cigarette products. The new measure is seen to bring PHP 31bn in fresh revenue for the government and will be used to partially fund the President's hallmark universal healthcare bill.
What to look out for: Trade war developments, Fed speakers, US NFP
- South Korea GDP and inflation (4 June)
- Thailand inflation (4 June)
- Euro zone inflation (4 June)
- US factory orders (4 June)
- Fed Williams speaks (4 June)
- Philippine inflation (5 June)
- Australia GDP (5 June)
- China Caixin PMI services (5 June)
- Taiwan inflation (5 June)
- US ADP employment (5 June)
- Fed Clarida, Bowman, Bostic (5 June)
- Euro zone GDP and ECB meeting (6 June)
- US initial jobless (6 June)
- US NFP (7 June)
Download
Download article
4 June 2019
Good MornING Asia - 4 June 2019 This bundle contains {bundle_entries}{/bundle_entries} articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).