ASEAN Morning Bytes
General market tone: Wait and see.
The investors are expected to stay on the sidelines ahead of the G-20 Summit where Trump-Xi meeting on trade steals all the attention.
International theme: G-20 Summit, Trump-Xi meeting, FOMC
- The key highlight of the weekend G-20 Summit is the meeting of US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the trade tensions. Hopes of a breakthrough may be misplaced, but the fact that both sides are coming to the table to discuss the issue is in itself a positive for markets for now.
- Among other things, diplomacy between the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia will be closely watched for what it means for oil prices.
- Carrying forth a dovish tone from Chairman Powell’s speech (or the other way round) the FOMC minutes signaled more flexible policy approach going into 2019. According to the ING house view, the Fed policy currently can no longer be described as ‘accommodative’, but it remains some way off from being restrictive.
EM Space: Investors seen on the sidelines ahead of G-20
- General Asia: Investors are likely to stay on the sidelines ahead of the G-20 where Trump-Xi meeting on trade steals all the attention. Any positive outcome from the Trump-Xi meeting will be positive for markets, but that’s something for Monday, after the end of G-20 Summit.
- Indonesia: Bank Indonesia (BI) director Hendarsah indicated that the central bank would “provide room” for the IDR to strengthen in line with market mechanisms. Emerging market currencies had reacted to dovish comments from Fed’s Powell with the BI showing it would let the currency appreciate and continue to regain some lost ground for the year.
- Philippines: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas forecasts November inflation to fall between 5.8-6.6% as the recent plunge in global crude prices have reflected substantial declines in domestic pump prices. Governor Espenilla indicates that the CPI trends show that inflation should revert to target by 2019-2020.
- Thailand: October balance of payments data is due. Our view of a narrowing in the current account surplus to $2bn from $2.4bn in September is consistent with consensus. A Bank of Thailand’s policymaker Somchai Jitsuchon pointed to the US-China trade spat as being the key risk to growth going forward.
What to look out for: G-20, China PMI
- China manufacturing PMI (30 November)
- G20 meeting (30 November)
- OPEC meeting (6 December)
Download
Download article
30 November 2018
Good MornING Asia - 30 November 2018 This bundle contains 2 articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).