ASEAN Morning Bytes
The coronavirus overshadows everything else that matters for the markets
EM Space: Coronavirus overshadows everything else
- General Asia: Numbers are rising with over 7,700 infections world over and 170 deaths in China from the coronavirus overshadowing everything else that matters for the markets. Fed signalled reluctance to change policy direction and the EU cleared the UK’s way out of the Union this Friday. The Asian economic calendar continues to be light today.
- Thailand: Yesterday’s manufacturing data for December pointed to a continued slowdown in GDP growth in the fourth quarter, while the hit to tourism from the coronavirus is clouding the outlook for 2020. We believe conditions are ripe for more rate cuts from the Bank of Thailand and there could be one as early as next week (read more here). The USD/THB rate traded above 31.00 yesterday with 31-33 likely shaping to be the new near-term trading range.
- Singapore: 4Q19 labour report is due today. The continued anaemic GDP growth provides no reasons to expect a recovery in the jobs market. The jobless rate hit a decade high of 2.3% in 3Q, which is where we expect it to stay.
- Philippines: The December bank lending and domestic liquidity data tomorrow should show a recovery in both indicators on the back of recent monetary easing by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). The sustained improvement in bank lending should lead the BSP for further reduction in the reserve requirements (RR).
What to look out for: US GDP and Brexit
- Hong kong trade (30 January)
- Singapore jobless rate (30 January)
- US 4Q GDP(30 January)
- China manufacturing and services PMI (31 January)
- Thailand trade (31 January)
- US core PCE (31 January)
- UK exit deadline
Download
Download article
30 January 2020
Good MornING Asia - 30 January 2020 This bundle contains {bundle_entries}{/bundle_entries} articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).