ASEAN Morning Bytes
General market tone: Slight risk-on.
China's PMI data will set the tone for the markets ahead of the start of the FOMC meeting.
EM Space: Taking cue from China purchasing manager index
- General Asia: Positive sentiment from the solid report from the US may drive buying momentum although investors will also take a cue from China’s manufacturing report. Meanwhile, trade talks between the US and China resume this week with Secretary Mnuchin hoping this round seals the deal.
- Thailand: March manufacturing index and balance of payments data due today will indicate the risks to our 1Q19 GDP growth forecast of 3.1%. The accelerated export decline in March leads us to expect a much weaker manufacturing growth of -3.5% YoY (consensus -2.1%). And for the same reason, we expect the current account surplus to narrow to $4.4bn in March from $6.5bn in February. The finance ministry yesterday cut its GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 3.8% from 4.0% on a view of much slower export growth than previously expected (3.4% vs. 4.5%). Yet, the central bank’s (BoT) persistent hawkish tone keeps us from expecting policy support with a rate cut this year.
- Philippines: The Philippines is projected to grow by roughly 6% in 1Q19, according to Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia. This forecast is roughly in-line with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ assessment that demand conditions remain firm, which is one of the reasons why the central bank has refrained from cutting rates thus far to support growth.
What to look out for: China PMI, FOMC and NFP
- China PMI (30 April)
- Thailand trade (30 April)
- Philippines domestic liquidity (30 April)
- Taiwan GDP (30 April)
- Thailand inflation (1 May)
- US ADP PMI (1 May)
- China Caixin PMI (2 May)
- Hong Kong GDP (2 May)
- Indonesia inflation (2 May)
- FOMC (2 May)
- Malaysia trade (3 May)
- US NFP and PMI services (3 May)
Download
Download article
30 April 2019
Good MornING Asia - 30 April 2019 This bundle contains {bundle_entries}{/bundle_entries} articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).