ASEAN Morning Bytes
General market tone: Wait and watch.
Investors will likely remain in holding pattern awaiting the G20 meeting for direction.
EM Space: Caution dominate amid US-Iran nuclear and US-China trade tensions
- General Asia: Regional markets will likely be in holding pattern with the fate of the US-China trade negotiations in the balance ahead of the G20 meeting later in the week. President Trump has also upped the ante on Iran with more tougher sanctions including the top leadership.
- Malaysia: Speaking at an event in Kuala Lumpur yesterday, IMF’s managing director Christine Lagarde highlighted the need for a productivity boost to put Malaysia on the path to high-income status over the next decade. Meanwhile, she praised improved governance and anti-corruption policies, growing education investment, and efforts to encourage more women in the labor force. 4-5% GDP growth is our baseline for the Malaysian economy for the medium-term.
- Indonesia: Indonesia surprisingly posted a trade surplus of $208 million for the month of May as a 17.7% YoY fall in imports far outweighed 9% fall in exports. Exports of non-oil products were down 8.2% as the ill effects of the trade war between the US and China bites while import weakness was across-the-board in consumer goods, raw and intermediate materials, and capital goods. The government has guided policies towards improving the external payments situation. However, the improvement in the trade surplus may come at a cost less raw materials and capital imports for companies.
- Thailand: May manufacturing production data is due today. We share the consensus view that growth returned to negative territory in the last month after a one-off positive in April amid steeper export declines. Economic activity data has been supportive of our call of a 25bp BoT policy rate cut tomorrow, which is an outlier in the consensus view backing the stable policy. Here is more on why we think the BoT should ease the policy.
What to look out for: Fed speakers and G20 meeting
- US consumer confidence (25 June)
- Hong Kong trade (25 June)
- Fed Bostic, Williams, Powell and Barkin speak (25 June)
- US durable goods (26 June)
- Bank of Thailand meeting (26 June)
- Singapore industrial production (26 June)
- Malaysia inflation (26 June)
- US 1Q GDP 3rd estimate (27 June)
- Bank of Korea (27 June)
- US Michigan sentiment (28 June)
Download
Download article
25 June 2019
Good MornING Asia - 25 June 2019 This bundle contains 4 articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).