ASEAN morning bytes
General market tone: Wait and watch.
Investors will likely turn defensive on Tuesday reacting to slowing China growth and the IMF growth outlook
EM Space: Emerging markets possibly to edge lower on IMF downgrade
- General Asia: Risk markets may turn defensive on Tuesday after initially shrugging off slipping Chinese growth momentum as the IMF downgraded the global growth outlook for both 2019 and 2020. Market players will also likely be watching the sustained rise in crude oil prices with Brent up again overnight on falling US rig count and rising demand from China.
- ASEAN: The IMF downgraded its forecast for ASEAN GDP growth for 2019 by 0.1ppt to 5.1% while leaving the 2020 forecast at 5.2% as it sees potential headwinds from the China growth slowdown.
- Philippines: The Senate passed the 2019 budget late on 21 January, sending the PHP 3.75tr spending plan to a bicameral session on the 22nd as the government currently operates on a re-enacted budget carried over from 2018. The bicameral session, however, may be lengthy as some members of the lower house have expressed reservations about the current spending plan. Should the budget remain unpassed, 1Q GDP numbers may take a hit as government spending has been a recent boost to overall growth while consumption and investments have slowed.
What to look out for: Central bank meetings
- Malaysia GIR (22 January)
- US existing home sales (22 January)
- Malaysia inflation (23 January)
- Singapore inflation (23 January)
- Philippines GDP (24 January)
- Malaysia policy meeting (24 January)
- ECB policy meeting (24 January)
- South Korea policy meeting (24 January)
Download
Download article
22 January 2019
Good MornING Asia - 22 January 2019 This bundle contains {bundle_entries}{/bundle_entries} articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).