ASEAN Morning Bytes
Asian markets likely to track Wall Street lower in reaction to Fed minutes
EM Space: Investors focus on Taper talk
- General Asia: Asian markets may open on the backfoot on Thursday as investors react to the minutes of the FOMC meeting which suggested most Fed officials support beginning the taper before the year-end. The focus will shift back to economic data with US initial jobless claims scheduled for release on Thursday before shifting to the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium next week. Meanwhile, market sentiment will likely remain sensitive to data on global growth as the Delta variant spreads across several jurisdictions.
-
Philippines: Authorities downgraded the official GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 4-5% (6-7% previously) citing the negative impact from the ongoing Delta variant wave. Official growth projections for 2022 (7-9%) and 2023 (6-7%) were retained. Government officials will focus on accelerating the pace of vaccination with only about 11.5% of the total population vaccinated as of today. We had previously trimmed our GDP growth projection to 3.8% and we may need to rework our forecast should the current period of heightened restrictions be extended further.
-
Indonesia: Bank Indonesia (BI) meets to discuss policy today. Governor Warjiyo is widely expected to keep rates at 3.5%. Previously, Warjiyo had signaled a “pro-growth” stance suggesting he would be on hold for the rest of the year to provide monetary support for the economic recovery. We do not expect additional rate cuts from BI however as Governor Warjiyo also cited currency stability as one key objective for this year. We expect BI to unveil specialized incentives to help boost bank lending with further rate cuts off the table for now while IDR will likely come under pressure in the near term with market focus back on the Fed taper.
What to look out for: Covid-19 developments
- Hong Kong CPI inflation (19 August)
- Bank Indonesia policy meeting (19 August)
- US initial jobless claims (19 August)
- Regional GIR data (20 August)
- Fed Kaplan speech (20 August)
Download
Download article
19 August 2021
Good MornING Asia - 19 August 2021 This bundle contains {bundle_entries}{/bundle_entries} articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).