ASEAN Morning Bytes
General market tone: Wait and see.
Risk sentiment looks set to improve as President Trump downplays trade spat with China.
| -$509m |
Consensus on Indonesia's April trade balanceSwing to deficit from $540m surplus in March |
EM Space: Trump indicates trade talks would resume and could still succeed
- General Asia: Donald Trump downplayed the recent escalation in trade tensions after the two countries traded tariffs, helping lift some sentiment overnight. This positive sentiment may feed into Asia with trade numbers out from Indonesia and India while China reports retail sales and industrial production.
- Indonesia: April trade data is due today with the market expecting sustained import compression as the government looks to help limit the current account deficit. Exports are still seen to struggle given the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China despite the recent efforts to bolster the export sector via incentives. A likely swing in trade balance to a deficit in April from a surplus in March may exert additional pressure on the IDR although the central bank has pledged to support the currency.
- Philippines: April road vehicle sales continued to struggle with the month seeing only a 0.8% growth as passenger car sales contraction was slightly offset by strong growth of commercial vehicles. Car sales figured in the weaker GDP growth in the first quarter of 2019.
What to look out for: Lots of trade data from Asia
- China’s April economic data (15 May)
- EU revised 1Q19 GDP (15 May)
- India April trade (15 May)
- Indonesia April trade (15 May)
- Philippines March OCW remittances (15 May)
- US April retail sales and industrial production (15 May)
- Bank Indonesia policy decision (16 May)
- Malaysia 1Q19 GDP and balance of payments (16 May)
- Singapore April NODX (17 May)
Download
Download article
15 May 2019
Good MornING Asia - 15 May 2019 This bundle contains 2 articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).