ASEAN Morning Bytes
Asian markets await further details of US president-elect Biden’s economic proposals.
EM Space: Trump impeachment, Biden economic plan and Covid-19 in focus
- General Asia: Asian markets are poised to take their cue from details on US president-elect Biden’s economic program. Market participants are anticipating a substantial fiscal package to help bolster the economic recovery which could also have an impact on the US fiscal picture. Meanwhile, investors are also awaiting advance retail sales and consumer sentiment, which could be affected by the recent spike in Covid-19 infections. Fed Chair Powell continued to reiterate monetary support in the near term, echoing comments from FOMC officials during the week. Investors will likely focus on the Biden economic program, any additional political developments in the US and the Covid-19 situation to close out the week.
- Indonesia: Indonesia will report December 2020 trade data on Friday with market participants expecting exports to sustain expansion while imports are forecast to contract for another month. The trade balance is also expected to remain in surplus, a trend that has helped push the current account balance closer to surplus and has in turn helped to provide some support for the IDR. Exports to China have been a major factor for the export sector’s resilience during the pandemic and we can expect this trend to continue in 2021 as China sustains its recovery from the 2020 downturn.
- Philippines: November overseas Filipino (OF) remittance data was reported late on Wednesday with inflows of cash transfers inching up by 0.3%, up for a third consecutive month. For the year, remittances are down 0.8% in a year where most analysts had expected OF cash transfers to drop by at least 10% due to the pandemic. The steady stream of OF remittances has helped support both domestic consumption and the PHP, which appreciated 5.5% in 2020, and we can expect these trends to continue in 2021.
What to look out for: Covid-19 developments
- Indonesia trade balance (15 January)
- Bank of Korea policy meeting (15 January)
- US retail sales, consumer sentiment and industrial production (15 January)
- Fed’s Powell and Kaplan give speeches (15 January)
Download
Download article
15 January 2021
Good MornING Asia - 15 January 2021 This bundle contains 3 articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).