ASEAN Morning Bytes
General market tone: Risk-on.
Positive trade data out from China and better US corporate earnings are seen to lift the mood on Monday although gains may be muted.
EM Space: China trade data drives upbeat tone although global growth concerns persist
- General Asia: China reported better than expected data over the weekend which boosted risk taking behavior after decent US earnings. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to trend higher on supply disruptions and tightening supply with global leaders concerned about growth momentum.
- Malaysia: Once again Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir slammed the currency market speculators. Local media quoted him as saying, “Malaysia cannot allow the market and ringgit to decline and depreciate further due to attacks by currency speculators”. The renewed MYR weakness this month may have triggered the warning, though we don’t see this heralding yet another fixed exchange rate era under Dr. Mahathir. Despite the depreciation trend since the last year in line with the broad emerging market trend, the MYR remains a resilient Asian currency.
- Indonesia: March trade data are due today with the consensus expectations of a swing in the trade balance to $177m deficit from $330m surplus in February. However, Bank Indonesia (BI) expects the economy's external position to move into surplus with improvement in the current account, according to Senior Deputy Governor Mirza Adityaswara. The current account deficit, which widened sharply in 2018 was one of the key reasons for IDR weakness and this forced BI for an aggressive rate hike by total 175 bps. The IDR should benefit from narrower current account deficit this year.
- Philippines: February overseas Filipino remittances data is due today with expectations centered on a 3.9% YoY growth. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Diokno highlighted remittances as a stable source of inflows, which was a reason the BSP won't be “scared” of pressure on the Peso when it cuts rates later in the year.
What to look out for: China GDP data and Fed speakers
- Indonesia trade (15 April)
- Philippines remittances (15 April)
- US industrial production (16 April)
- Singapore exports (17 April)
- Fed Kaplan (17 April)
- China GDP (17 April)
- EU inflation (17 April)
- US retail sales (18 April)
- Korea BoK meeting (18 April)
- Fed Bullard and Harker speak (18 April)
- Fed Bostic (19 April)
Download
Download article
15 April 2019
Good MornING Asia - 15 April 2019 This bundle contains 3 articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).